Climate change: the facts

“New records are being set around the world due to climate change, and the adverse effects are already affecting agricultural production in Europe”

The European Environment Agency

2018 was the hottest year in German history and saw grain production described as “grim” by a regional agricultural association.

In the same year, south-west Sweden yields were the lowest for 25 years – 50% lower, or more in some cases.

The picture was little different in the Netherlands, where Iris Bouwers, a 25-year-old farmer, said the parched summer had been a “catastrophe” for her farm.

Older families around me are comparing this to 1976,” she said. “My dad can’t remember any drought like this.

Thomas Duffy, an Irish dairy farmer from County Cavan, said the drought:

…won’t break us, but our feeding costs are 50% higher than last year and all the money we’d normally be putting into improving conditions for the cows and infrastructure is now going to silages [winter feed] and buying forage.

The heatwaves and droughts continued into 2019 which led the Swiss government to talk about the “grave consequences” for its agriculture.

And in Finland, a major producer of spring barley and oats, soil fertility is declining as more frequent wet and dry spells strip the earth of nutrients.

The World Weather Attribution group, an international partnership between six research centers/groups including NOAA’s National Center for Atmospheric Research, found that human-cause climate change increased the likelihood of the 2018 summer heatwave by five times in Denmark, three times in the Netherlands, and two times in Ireland.

California experienced the deadliest and most destructive wildfires on record in 2017 and 2018.

These fires have also been the most expensive in state history, with claims reaching $28.8bn in total.

The increasing destruction is making it more costly for people to obtain homeowners' insurance, which is impacting house sales.

It’s also led to an insurance company going bust, and some refusing to cover residents in fire-prone areas.

Experts broadly agree that the climate crisis is making the conditions for wildfires worse.

Since 1970, temperatures in the western US have increased by about double the global average, lengthening the local wildfire season by several months and drying out large tracts of forests, making them more fire-prone.

One of the consequences of this is that a large number of trees in the region- nearly 129m- have died since 2010. Dead trees act as explosive fuel when wildfires start.

A major climate assessment by the US government states:

Climate change is increasing the vulnerability of many forests to ecosystem changes and tree mortality through fire, insect infestations, drought and disease outbreaks.

Flash floods have affected the area throughout the 21st century, with events occurring in 2009, in 2012, and 2016.

In 2019 Environment Agency had 39 flood warnings in place across the country, including five severe warnings on the River Don in South Yorkshire.

About 400 homes were flooded and 1,200 properties evacuated in the area.

Pam Webb, who owns a spa in Fishlake, bought her property in 2004. Commenting on surveys done at the time, she said:

There was nothing of any concern raised, Fishlake hadn't flooded in 100 years.

Ms. Webb subsequently found out her insurance would not cover the damage because of a flood exemption on the policy.

It's my home and my business," she said. "I work with a great team of girls and that's their livelihoods affected and my own as well.

A local farmer, Robert Robinson, said:

My whole farm is just covered in water. We've animals that are suffering because of the water and we can't get in and out without tractors.

Recently a large study involving research institutions in 24 European countries including the University of Bath and University of Liverpool, found that “an increase in autumn and winter rainfall caused by climate change has led to increasing floods in the UK and north-western Europe”'

This heavier rainfall occurs because a warmer atmosphere holds more moisture. For every 1C increase in temperature, the air can hold about 7% extra water vapour.

Professor Piers Forster from the University of Leeds said:

When coupled to warmer, wetter winters generally, as expected from climate change, the ground becomes more saturated so any rainfall will give a greater chance of flooding.

Stephen Gilleard, another farmer from Fishlake village, said:

You learn to live with nature and, as a farmer, you deal with things but you can't deal with this.

The UK Government’s chief economist in 2006, Nicholas Stern, calculated that it would cost 1% of GDP to tackle climate change if we started immediately. If we didn't, the cost of dealing with the results could reduce income per head up to 20%.

Over a decade later, in 2019, the Governor of the Bank of England warned that companies and industries that are not moving towards zero-carbon emissions will be punished by investors and go bankrupt.

Mark Carney also told The Guardian newspaper it was possible that the global transition needed to tackle the climate crisis could result in an abrupt financial collapse. He said the longer action to reverse emissions was delayed, the more the risk of collapse would grow.